Orlando City
Model pick
51%
Fair odds 1.97
FC Cincinnati
30%
Fair odds 3.38
The prediction
- 2–17%
- 2–27%
- 1–16%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Orlando City | Draw | FC Cincinnati | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 51% | 20% | 30% |
| Elo model | 44% | 28% | 29% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours FC Cincinnati
FC Cincinnati are rated 12 points above Orlando City (1366 to 1354), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Orlando City
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Orlando City's chance of winning and takes the same from FC Cincinnati's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Orlando City
Expected goals 2.5 to 1.9. Orlando City score 1.1 a match against an average side (8th in MLS); FC Cincinnati concede 2.4 (25th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours FC Cincinnati
Orlando City LDDWD, barely moved; FC Cincinnati WDWWL, gained 12 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours FC Cincinnati
Orlando City won 3, drew 4 and lost 5 of the last 12 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Orlando CityFC CincinnatiOrlando City
10/10 over 2.5
24 scored
24 conceded
09/10
09/13
09/20
09/27
10/11
10/15
10/18
10/25
10/29
10/31
FC Cincinnati
7/10 over 2.5
18 scored
17 conceded
09/13
09/20
09/27
10/11
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
10/28
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-1
- 2-2
- 1-1
- 3-1
- 3-2
- 1-2
- 2-3
- 2-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| 1 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 4 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Orlando City | Draw | FC Cincinnati |
|---|---|---|---|
| Orlando City | 27%3.65 | 5%20.88 | 3%30.03 |
| Level | 18%5.43 | 9%10.71 | 11%8.80 |
| FC Cincinnati | 5%18.98 | 5%20.12 | 15%6.61 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Orlando City wins5FC Cincinnati wins- D Orlando City vs FC Cincinnati 1-1
- L FC Cincinnati vs Orlando City 6-2
- D FC Cincinnati vs Orlando City 1-1
- L Orlando City vs FC Cincinnati 1-2
- W FC Cincinnati vs Orlando City 1-3
- L Orlando City vs FC Cincinnati 0-1
- W FC Cincinnati vs Orlando City 0-1
- D Orlando City vs FC Cincinnati 0-0
- L FC Cincinnati vs Orlando City 1-0
- L Orlando City vs FC Cincinnati 1-2
12 meetings in the data. Results shown from Orlando City's side.