Seattle Sounders
35%
Fair odds 2.84
Real Salt Lake
Model pick
38%
Fair odds 2.64
The prediction
- 1–113%
- 0–19%
- 1–28%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Seattle Sounders | Draw | Real Salt Lake | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 35% | 27% | 38% |
| Elo model | 48% | 27% | 25% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Seattle Sounders
Seattle Sounders are rated 19 points above Real Salt Lake (1352 to 1334), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Seattle Sounders
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Seattle Sounders's chance of winning and takes the same from Real Salt Lake's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.3 to 1.4. Seattle Sounders score 0.8 a match against an average side (27th in MLS); Real Salt Lake concede 1.9 (8th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Real Salt Lake
Seattle Sounders LLDDL, lost 27 rating points; Real Salt Lake LWWWD, gained 27 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Real Salt Lake
Seattle Sounders won 3, drew 3 and lost 6 of the last 12 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Seattle SoundersReal Salt LakeSeattle Sounders
6/10 over 2.5
17 scored
15 conceded
09/20
09/24
09/27
10/02
10/11
10/15
10/18
10/25
10/29
11/01
Real Salt Lake
7/10 over 2.5
14 scored
14 conceded
09/13
09/20
09/24
09/27
10/11
10/15
10/18
10/25
10/29
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 0-0
- 0-2
- 2-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Seattle Sounders | Draw | Real Salt Lake |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Sounders | 26%3.92 | 7%14.49 | 3%32.47 |
| Level | 9%10.96 | 15%6.48 | 15%6.87 |
| Real Salt Lake | 1%94.34 | 4%27.93 | 21%4.83 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Seattle Sounders wins6Real Salt Lake wins- W Seattle Sounders vs Real Salt Lake 2-0
- L Real Salt Lake vs Seattle Sounders 2-1
- W Seattle Sounders vs Real Salt Lake 1-0
- L Real Salt Lake vs Seattle Sounders 2-0
- D Seattle Sounders vs Real Salt Lake 1-1
- L Real Salt Lake vs Seattle Sounders 2-0
- D Real Salt Lake vs Seattle Sounders 0-0
- W Seattle Sounders vs Real Salt Lake 2-0
- L Seattle Sounders vs Real Salt Lake 1-2
- L Real Salt Lake vs Seattle Sounders 1-0
12 meetings in the data. Results shown from Seattle Sounders's side.