Tirol
Model pick
61%
Fair odds 1.63
A. Lustenau
18%
Fair odds 5.69
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Tirol | Draw | A. Lustenau | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 61% | 21% | 18% |
| Elo model | 52% | 26% | 21% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Tirol
Tirol are rated 47 points above A. Lustenau (1303 to 1256), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Tirol
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Tirol's chance of winning and takes the same from A. Lustenau's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Tirol
Expected goals 2.1 to 1.1. Tirol score 0.8 a match against an average side (7th in Austrian Bundesliga); A. Lustenau concede 2.8 (13th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Tirol LDWLL, lost 7 rating points; A. Lustenau LLLLW, lost 18 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Tirol
Tirol won 5, drew 1 and lost 3 of the last 9 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
TirolA. LustenauTirol
7/10 over 2.5
13 scored
16 conceded
08/07
08/16
08/28
09/02
09/13
09/18
10/10
10/18
10/24
10/31
A. Lustenau
8/10 over 2.5
12 scored
28 conceded
08/08
08/15
08/22
08/28
09/13
09/19
10/11
10/17
10/24
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-1
- 1-1
- 2-0
- 1-0
- 3-1
- 3-0
- 2-2
- 1-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Tirol | Draw | A. Lustenau |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tirol | 32%3.09 | 3%39.53 | 1%— |
| Level | 23%4.30 | 11%8.98 | 5%21.01 |
| A. Lustenau | 6%16.34 | 7%15.02 | 13%7.95 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
5Tirol wins3A. Lustenau wins- W A. Lustenau vs Tirol 0-4
- D Tirol vs A. Lustenau 0-0
- W A. Lustenau vs Tirol 1-2
- L Tirol vs A. Lustenau 0-2
- W A. Lustenau vs Tirol 2-3
- W A. Lustenau vs Tirol 2-4
- L Tirol vs A. Lustenau 0-2
- W Tirol vs A. Lustenau 3-2
- L A. Lustenau vs Tirol 2-1
9 meetings in the data. Results shown from Tirol's side.