Share of the pitch
Who wins
| HJK | Draw | AC Oulu | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 76% | 15% | 9% |
| Elo model | 64% | 23% | 13% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 81% | 12% | 7% |
| Best price on offer | 1.17 | 9.00 | 16.00 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours HJK
HJK are rated 133 points above AC Oulu (1474 to 1341), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours HJK
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to HJK's chance of winning and takes the same from AC Oulu's.
-
Attack against defence Favours HJK
Expected goals 2.7 to 0.9. HJK score 1.6 a match against an average side (1st in Veikkausliiga); AC Oulu concede 1.7 (6th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
HJK WWDWW, gained 41 rating points; AC Oulu WDWWL, gained 27 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours HJK
Bookmakers rate HJK higher than the model does: HJK 81% against the model's 76%, AC Oulu 7% against 9%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours HJK
HJK won 6, drew 2 and lost 4 of the last 12 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
HJKAC Oulu
09/13
10/25
10/08
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-0
- 3-0
- 2-1
- 3-1
- 1-0
- 1-1
- 4-0
- 4-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 9 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 9 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | HJK | Draw | AC Oulu |
|---|---|---|---|
| HJK | 35%2.89 | 1%— | 0%— |
| Level | 31%3.24 | 7%14.79 | 2%65.79 |
| AC Oulu | 11%8.98 | 7%15.06 | 8%13.19 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
- W AC Oulu vs HJK 3-4
- W AC Oulu vs HJK 0-1
- L HJK vs AC Oulu 0-1
- W HJK vs AC Oulu 3-1
- W AC Oulu vs HJK 0-4
- W HJK vs AC Oulu 3-0
- L AC Oulu vs HJK 1-0
- W AC Oulu vs HJK 1-3
- D HJK vs AC Oulu 1-1
- D AC Oulu vs HJK 1-1
12 meetings in the data. Results shown from HJK's side.