Como
Model pick
82%
Fair odds 1.22
AEK
6%
Fair odds 15.60
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Como | Draw | AEK | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 82% | 12% | 6% |
| Elo model | 66% | 22% | 12% |
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Favours Como
Como are rated 146 points above AEK (1658 to 1512), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Como
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 7 points to Como's chance of winning and takes the same from AEK's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Como
Expected goals 3.1 to 0.8. Como score 2.3 a match against an average side (1st in Serie A); AEK concede 1.2 (3rd best defence in Greek Super League).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Como
Como WWWWW, gained 49 rating points; AEK LLWLL, lost 23 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
ComoAEKComo
6/10 over 2.5
26 scored
10 conceded
09/14
09/20
10/11
10/14
10/18
10/21
10/24
10/27
11/01
11/04
AEK
7/10 over 2.5
21 scored
15 conceded
09/05
09/08
09/13
09/20
10/10
10/14
10/20
10/24
11/01
11/04
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 3-0
- 2-0
- 3-1
- 2-1
- 4-0
- 4-1
- 1-0
- 1-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Como | Draw | AEK |
|---|---|---|---|
| Como | 43%2.33 | 1%70.92 | 0%— |
| Level | 31%3.19 | 6%16.16 | 2%45.45 |
| AEK | 8%12.85 | 4%26.25 | 4%24.21 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.