Crewe
Model pick
41%
Fair odds 2.47
AFC Wimbledon
31%
Fair odds 3.22
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Crewe | Draw | AFC Wimbledon | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 41% | 28% | 31% |
| Elo model | 41% | 28% | 31% |
Team news
- Lunt Doubtful
Sports Mole's preview (0 days old) names no other Crewe injury concerns; James Jones has rejoined on a short-term contract. Lunt's full first name, role and match status are not confirmed in the sources found.
- Mathew Stevens Out
- Dujuan Richards Out
Wimbledon have lost their last two matches and are on a poor run; no suspensions were found in the sources.
Allowing for this news: Crewe 41%, draw 28%, AFC Wimbledon 30% (xG 1.33 – 1.11). This adjustment is being tested in the track record and isn't used in the prediction above yet.
Found by an AI web search. Reports can be wrong or out of date. Sources: sportsmole.co.uk, crewealex.net, vavel.com
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours AFC Wimbledon
AFC Wimbledon are rated 28 points above Crewe (1247 to 1219), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Crewe
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Crewe's chance of winning and takes the same from AFC Wimbledon's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Crewe
Expected goals 1.3 to 1.1. Crewe score 0.6 a match against an average side (19th in League Two); AFC Wimbledon concede 2.1 (23rd best defence in League One).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Crewe
Crewe DLLWW, lost 7 rating points; AFC Wimbledon LDLLL, lost 27 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Crewe won 1, drew 5 and lost 2 of the last 8 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
CreweAFC WimbledonCrewe
3/10 over 2.5
13 scored
15 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/26
10/03
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
AFC Wimbledon
5/10 over 2.5
8 scored
18 conceded
09/02
09/07
09/12
09/17
09/26
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 0-0
- 0-1
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 1-2
- 0-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 11 | 14 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Crewe | Draw | AFC Wimbledon |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crewe | 21%4.68 | 4%26.04 | 1%85.47 |
| Level | 17%5.91 | 17%5.72 | 11%9.51 |
| AFC Wimbledon | 3%35.71 | 6%16.58 | 20%5.03 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Crewe wins2AFC Wimbledon wins- L AFC Wimbledon vs Crewe 3-0
- D Crewe vs AFC Wimbledon 1-1
- D Crewe vs AFC Wimbledon 1-1
- D AFC Wimbledon vs Crewe 2-2
- D Crewe vs AFC Wimbledon 0-0
- D AFC Wimbledon vs Crewe 1-1
- W Crewe vs AFC Wimbledon 3-1
- L AFC Wimbledon vs Crewe 3-2
8 meetings in the data. Results shown from Crewe's side.