Leyton Orient
Model pick
60%
Fair odds 1.66
AFC Wimbledon
17%
Fair odds 6.02
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Leyton Orient | Draw | AFC Wimbledon | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 60% | 23% | 17% |
| Elo model | 58% | 25% | 17% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Leyton Orient
Leyton Orient are rated 86 points above AFC Wimbledon (1332 to 1247), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Leyton Orient
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Leyton Orient's chance of winning and takes the same from AFC Wimbledon's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Leyton Orient
Expected goals 1.9 to 0.9. Leyton Orient score 0.9 a match against an average side (12th in League One); AFC Wimbledon concede 2.1 (23rd best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Leyton Orient
Leyton Orient WLLWD, gained 13 rating points; AFC Wimbledon LDLLL, lost 27 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Leyton Orient won 2, drew 0 and lost 2 of the last 4 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Leyton OrientAFC WimbledonLeyton Orient
4/10 over 2.5
15 scored
9 conceded
09/01
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/03
10/10
10/17
10/21
10/24
10/31
AFC Wimbledon
5/10 over 2.5
8 scored
18 conceded
09/02
09/07
09/12
09/17
09/26
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 3-0
- 0-0
- 3-1
- 0-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 11 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Leyton Orient | Draw | AFC Wimbledon |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leyton Orient | 35%2.88 | 3%29.94 | 1%— |
| Level | 22%4.49 | 14%7.20 | 6%16.26 |
| AFC Wimbledon | 4%27.03 | 5%19.92 | 10%9.90 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Leyton Orient wins2AFC Wimbledon wins- W AFC Wimbledon vs Leyton Orient 2-4
- L Leyton Orient vs AFC Wimbledon 1-3
- W Leyton Orient vs AFC Wimbledon 1-0
- L AFC Wimbledon vs Leyton Orient 2-0
4 meetings in the data. Results shown from Leyton Orient's side.