Sparta Prague
30%
Fair odds 3.36
AZ Alkmaar
Model pick
45%
Fair odds 2.23
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Sparta Prague | Draw | AZ Alkmaar | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 30% | 25% | 45% |
| Elo model | 34% | 28% | 38% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours AZ Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar are rated 79 points above Sparta Prague (1545 to 1466), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Sparta Prague
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Sparta Prague's chance of winning and takes the same from AZ Alkmaar's.
-
Attack against defence Favours AZ Alkmaar
Expected goals 1.3 to 1.6. Sparta Prague score 1.2 a match against an average side; AZ Alkmaar concede 1.1 (3rd best defence in Eredivisie).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Sparta Prague LLDWL, lost 16 rating points; AZ Alkmaar LLLWD, lost 20 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
Sparta PragueAZ AlkmaarSparta Prague
6/10 over 2.5
13 scored
13 conceded
12/11
12/18
03/12
03/19
09/16
10/15
10/22
11/05
AZ Alkmaar
4/10 over 2.5
11 scored
12 conceded
09/11
09/16
09/20
10/10
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
10/31
11/05
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 2-1
- 0-2
- 1-0
- 2-2
- 0-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 6 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Sparta Prague | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sparta Prague | 19%5.29 | 6%17.51 | 3%33.22 |
| Level | 10%10.33 | 14%7.07 | 15%6.47 |
| AZ Alkmaar | 2%63.29 | 5%21.98 | 27%3.71 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
0Sparta Prague wins2AZ Alkmaar wins- L Sparta Prague vs AZ Alkmaar 0-4
- L AZ Alkmaar vs Sparta Prague 2-1
2 meetings in the data. Results shown from Sparta Prague's side.