Lillestrom
Model pick
52%
Fair odds 1.93Bookmakers 52%
Aalesund
25%
Fair odds 3.93Bookmakers 26%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Lillestrom | Draw | Aalesund | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 52% | 23% | 25% |
| Elo model | 57% | 25% | 18% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 52% | 22% | 26% |
| Best price on offer | 1.81 | 4.33 | 3.70 |
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Favours Lillestrom
Lillestrom are rated 79 points above Aalesund (1341 to 1262), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Lillestrom
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Lillestrom's chance of winning and takes the same from Aalesund's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Lillestrom
Expected goals 2.0 to 1.3. Lillestrom score 0.9 a match against an average side (11th in Eliteserien); Aalesund concede 2.4 (15th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Lillestrom LWWLW, gained 10 rating points; Aalesund LLWLW, gained 10 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Rest Favours Aalesund
Lillestrom will have had 3 days' rest, Aalesund 8. The model doesn't adjust for this.
Not in the model -
Bookmakers' view Neutral
Bookmakers' average price agrees with the model to within a few points (Lillestrom 52%, Aalesund 26%).
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours Lillestrom
Lillestrom won 3, drew 1 and lost 1 of the last 5 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
LillestromAalesundLillestrom
5/10 over 2.5
12 scored
17 conceded
09/12
09/17
09/20
10/11
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
11/01
11/05
Aalesund
8/10 over 2.5
22 scored
22 conceded
08/09
08/16
08/30
09/04
09/13
09/19
10/11
10/17
10/25
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 1-0
- 1-2
- 2-2
- 3-1
- 3-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 7 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Lillestrom | Draw | Aalesund |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lillestrom | 30%3.38 | 4%23.36 | 2%60.24 |
| Level | 18%5.43 | 12%8.36 | 9%11.42 |
| Aalesund | 4%23.53 | 6%17.51 | 15%6.49 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Lillestrom wins1Aalesund wins- W Aalesund vs Lillestrom 1-3
- D Aalesund vs Lillestrom 1-1
- W Lillestrom vs Aalesund 5-1
- L Aalesund vs Lillestrom 2-1
- W Lillestrom vs Aalesund 2-0
5 meetings in the data. Results shown from Lillestrom's side.