Kilmarnock
Model pick
43%
Fair odds 2.33
Aberdeen
31%
Fair odds 3.22
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Kilmarnock | Draw | Aberdeen | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 43% | 26% | 31% |
| Elo model | 44% | 28% | 29% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Aberdeen
Aberdeen are rated 11 points above Kilmarnock (1421 to 1410), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Kilmarnock
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Kilmarnock's chance of winning and takes the same from Aberdeen's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Kilmarnock
Expected goals 1.6 to 1.3. Kilmarnock score 1.0 a match against an average side (9th in Scottish Premiership); Aberdeen concede 1.5 (9th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Kilmarnock DLLWL, lost 16 rating points; Aberdeen LLWLD, lost 9 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Kilmarnock won 6, drew 1 and lost 7 of the last 14 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
KilmarnockAberdeenKilmarnock
6/10 over 2.5
9 scored
19 conceded
08/29
09/02
09/05
09/15
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/24
10/28
10/31
Aberdeen
4/10 over 2.5
10 scored
13 conceded
08/08
08/30
09/02
09/05
09/15
09/19
10/11
10/17
10/24
10/28
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 1-2
- 2-0
- 0-1
- 0-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | ||
| 5 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Kilmarnock | Draw | Aberdeen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kilmarnock | 26%3.81 | 5%18.98 | 2%47.39 |
| Level | 15%6.78 | 15%6.76 | 12%8.49 |
| Aberdeen | 2%41.32 | 5%20.33 | 18%5.65 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
6Kilmarnock wins7Aberdeen wins- D Aberdeen vs Kilmarnock 0-0
- L Aberdeen vs Kilmarnock 1-0
- W Kilmarnock vs Aberdeen 3-0
- L Aberdeen vs Kilmarnock 2-1
- L Kilmarnock vs Aberdeen 0-1
- L Aberdeen vs Kilmarnock 1-0
- W Kilmarnock vs Aberdeen 4-0
- L Aberdeen vs Kilmarnock 2-0
- W Kilmarnock vs Aberdeen 2-0
- W Aberdeen vs Kilmarnock 0-1
14 meetings in the data. Results shown from Kilmarnock's side.