Rangers
Model pick
74%
Fair odds 1.35
Aberdeen
9%
Fair odds 10.54
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Rangers | Draw | Aberdeen | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 74% | 16% | 9% |
| Elo model | 70% | 21% | 9% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Rangers
Rangers are rated 184 points above Aberdeen (1605 to 1421), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Rangers
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 6 points to Rangers's chance of winning and takes the same from Aberdeen's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Rangers
Expected goals 2.5 to 0.8. Rangers score 1.7 a match against an average side (2nd in Scottish Premiership); Aberdeen concede 1.5 (9th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Rangers
Rangers DWDWW, gained 19 rating points; Aberdeen LLWLD, lost 9 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Rangers
Rangers won 11, drew 4 and lost 3 of the last 18 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
RangersAberdeenRangers
6/10 over 2.5
18 scored
8 conceded
08/09
08/30
09/02
09/05
09/09
09/20
10/10
10/17
10/24
10/28
Aberdeen
4/10 over 2.5
10 scored
13 conceded
08/08
08/30
09/02
09/05
09/15
09/19
10/11
10/17
10/24
10/28
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-0
- 3-0
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 3-1
- 1-1
- 4-0
- 4-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 9 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 9 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Rangers | Draw | Aberdeen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rangers | 50%1.99 | 3%33.56 | 1%— |
| Level | 21%4.78 | 9%10.99 | 4%27.17 |
| Aberdeen | 4%28.33 | 3%28.90 | 5%18.38 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
11Rangers wins3Aberdeen wins- W Aberdeen vs Rangers 0-1
- W Rangers vs Aberdeen 4-1
- W Aberdeen vs Rangers 0-2
- W Rangers vs Aberdeen 2-0
- W Rangers vs Aberdeen 4-0
- D Aberdeen vs Rangers 2-2
- W Rangers vs Aberdeen 3-0
- L Aberdeen vs Rangers 2-1
- W Rangers vs Aberdeen 2-1
- D Aberdeen vs Rangers 1-1
18 meetings in the data. Results shown from Rangers's side.