Port Vale
Model pick
44%
Fair odds 2.27
Accrington
28%
Fair odds 3.57
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Port Vale | Draw | Accrington | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 44% | 28% | 28% |
| Elo model | 53% | 26% | 21% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Port Vale
Port Vale are rated 51 points above Accrington (1248 to 1196), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Port Vale
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Port Vale's chance of winning and takes the same from Accrington's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Port Vale
Expected goals 1.4 to 1.1. Port Vale score 0.7 a match against an average side (7th in League Two); Accrington concede 1.9 (6th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Accrington
Port Vale WLDWW, gained 8 rating points; Accrington DWDWD, gained 37 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Port Vale won 1, drew 2 and lost 1 of the last 4 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Port ValeAccringtonPort Vale
2/10 over 2.5
9 scored
11 conceded
08/29
09/01
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
Accrington
4/10 over 2.5
17 scored
8 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/26
10/03
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 0-0
- 2-1
- 0-1
- 2-0
- 1-2
- 0-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Port Vale | Draw | Accrington |
|---|---|---|---|
| Port Vale | 30%3.32 | 6%15.85 | 2%43.67 |
| Level | 13%7.62 | 17%5.88 | 13%7.92 |
| Accrington | 1%74.63 | 4%28.41 | 14%7.31 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Port Vale wins1Accrington wins- W Port Vale vs Accrington 2-1
- D Accrington vs Port Vale 2-2
- L Accrington vs Port Vale 3-0
- D Port Vale vs Accrington 1-1
4 meetings in the data. Results shown from Port Vale's side.