Alloa
Model pick
37%
Fair odds 2.67Bookmakers 38%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Alloa | Draw | Airdrie Utd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 37% | 28% | 35% |
| Elo model | 36% | 28% | 36% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 38% | 27% | 36% |
| Best price on offer | 2.45 | 3.60 | 2.63 |
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Favours Airdrie Utd
Airdrie Utd are rated 68 points above Alloa (1247 to 1178), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Alloa
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Alloa's chance of winning and takes the same from Airdrie Utd's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.3 to 1.2. Alloa score 0.6 a match against an average side (6th in Scottish League One); Airdrie Utd concede 2.1 (3rd best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Alloa LLWLL, lost 21 rating points; Airdrie Utd LLLDW, lost 24 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
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Bookmakers' view Neutral
Bookmakers' average price agrees with the model to within a few points (Alloa 38%, Airdrie Utd 36%).
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours Airdrie Utd
Alloa won 2, drew 0 and lost 7 of the last 9 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
AlloaAirdrie UtdAlloa
5/10 over 2.5
10 scored
15 conceded
08/22
08/29
09/05
10/10
10/17
10/24
10/31
08/29
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/03
10/17
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 51%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 0-1
- 0-0
- 2-1
- 1-2
- 2-0
- 0-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Alloa | Draw | Airdrie Utd |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alloa | 21%4.79 | 4%22.78 | 2%64.10 |
| Level | 15%6.81 | 17%5.92 | 12%8.36 |
| Airdrie Utd | 2%41.84 | 6%17.76 | 22%4.63 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Alloa wins- L Airdrie Utd vs Alloa 1-0
- L Alloa vs Airdrie Utd 0-1
- L Airdrie Utd vs Alloa 4-0
- W Alloa vs Airdrie Utd 2-0
- L Airdrie Utd vs Alloa 2-0
- L Alloa vs Airdrie Utd 0-2
- L Airdrie Utd vs Alloa 3-1
- W Alloa vs Airdrie Utd 2-1
- L Airdrie Utd vs Alloa 2-1
9 meetings in the data. Results shown from Alloa's side.