Twente
Model pick
50%
Fair odds 2.01Bookmakers 42%
Ajax
27%
Fair odds 3.68Bookmakers 34%
The model and the bookmakers disagree. Twente: 50% here, 42% with bookmakers. Bookmakers are usually sharper, so read a gap as a reason to look closer, not a tip.
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Twente | Draw | Ajax | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 50% | 23% | 27% |
| Elo model | 46% | 27% | 27% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 42% | 24% | 34% |
| Best price on offer | 2.30 | 3.90 | 2.90 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Neutral
Twente and Ajax are rated almost level (1619 and 1617).
-
Home advantage Favours Twente
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Twente's chance of winning and takes the same from Ajax's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Twente
Expected goals 1.9 to 1.4. Twente score 1.9 a match against an average side (2nd in Eredivisie); Ajax concede 1.1 (2nd best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Ajax
Twente WWWWL, gained 30 rating points; Ajax WWWWW, gained 50 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Ajax
Bookmakers rate Ajax higher than the model does: Twente 42% against the model's 50%, Ajax 34% against 27%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Neutral
Twente won 3, drew 3 and lost 4 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
TwenteAjaxTwente
5/10 over 2.5
27 scored
7 conceded
09/09
09/12
09/20
10/10
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
11/01
11/05
Ajax
7/10 over 2.5
30 scored
11 conceded
09/12
09/15
09/19
10/10
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
10/31
11/05
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 65%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-2
- 2-0
- 2-2
- 1-0
- 3-1
- 0-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 6 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Twente | Draw | Ajax |
|---|---|---|---|
| Twente | 31%3.23 | 5%19.76 | 2%46.95 |
| Level | 16%6.27 | 12%8.35 | 10%10.32 |
| Ajax | 3%29.76 | 5%19.53 | 16%6.35 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Twente wins4Ajax wins- W Ajax vs Twente 1-2
- L Twente vs Ajax 2-3
- L Ajax vs Twente 2-0
- D Twente vs Ajax 2-2
- L Ajax vs Twente 2-1
- W Twente vs Ajax 3-1
- W Twente vs Ajax 3-1
- D Ajax vs Twente 0-0
- L Ajax vs Twente 5-0
- D Twente vs Ajax 1-1
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from Twente's side.