Kasimpasa
Model pick
51%
Fair odds 1.96
Alanyaspor
23%
Fair odds 4.30
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Kasimpasa | Draw | Alanyaspor | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 51% | 26% | 23% |
| Elo model | 50% | 27% | 23% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Kasimpasa
Kasimpasa are rated 32 points above Alanyaspor (1506 to 1474), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Kasimpasa
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Kasimpasa's chance of winning and takes the same from Alanyaspor's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Kasimpasa
Expected goals 1.6 to 1.0. Kasimpasa score 1.2 a match against an average side (10th in Süper Lig); Alanyaspor concede 1.4 (14th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Kasimpasa
Kasimpasa DWWLD, gained 11 rating points; Alanyaspor LLLDW, lost 25 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Kasimpasa
Kasimpasa won 7, drew 2 and lost 1 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
KasimpasaAlanyasporKasimpasa
5/10 over 2.5
15 scored
11 conceded
08/15
08/22
08/30
09/06
09/13
09/18
10/09
10/18
10/24
11/01
Alanyaspor
6/10 over 2.5
9 scored
16 conceded
08/15
08/23
08/30
09/07
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/23
11/02
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 0-0
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 3-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Kasimpasa | Draw | Alanyaspor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kasimpasa | 28%3.61 | 4%28.41 | 1%— |
| Level | 20%4.98 | 15%6.55 | 8%12.87 |
| Alanyaspor | 4%27.03 | 6%16.61 | 15%6.65 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
7Kasimpasa wins1Alanyaspor wins- W Kasimpasa vs Alanyaspor 1-0
- W Alanyaspor vs Kasimpasa 1-2
- W Kasimpasa vs Alanyaspor 2-1
- W Alanyaspor vs Kasimpasa 1-2
- W Kasimpasa vs Alanyaspor 2-1
- D Alanyaspor vs Kasimpasa 3-3
- W Alanyaspor vs Kasimpasa 1-3
- W Kasimpasa vs Alanyaspor 4-1
- D Kasimpasa vs Alanyaspor 2-2
- L Alanyaspor vs Kasimpasa 2-0
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from Kasimpasa's side.