Sevilla
Model pick
45%
Fair odds 2.25Bookmakers 51%
Alaves
29%
Fair odds 3.49Bookmakers 22%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Sevilla | Draw | Alaves | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 45% | 27% | 29% |
| Elo model | 46% | 27% | 26% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 51% | 28% | 22% |
| Best price on offer | 1.94 | 3.50 | 4.50 |
Team news
- Peque Fernández Out
- Miguel Sierra Out
- Marcão Out
- Manu Bueno Out
- Isaac Romero Doubtful
Kike Salas and Youssouf Fofana have returned to training and are reported as available; Fofana was also named in the squad per one report, so neither is listed as an absence.
- Mikel Rodríguez Out
- Facundo Garcés Out
Coach Quique Sánchez Flores said everyone except these two will be available; no new injury concerns reported after the Barcelona defeat.
Allowing for this news: Sevilla 41%, draw 28%, Alaves 31% (xG 1.39 – 1.18). This adjustment is being tested in the track record and isn't used in the prediction above yet.
Found by an AI web search. Reports can be wrong or out of date. Sources: comuniate.com, futbolfantasy.com, futbolfantasy.com, canalsur.es
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Neutral
Sevilla and Alaves are rated almost level (1468 and 1462).
-
Home advantage Favours Sevilla
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Sevilla's chance of winning and takes the same from Alaves's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Sevilla
Expected goals 1.5 to 1.2. Sevilla score 1.2 a match against an average side (10th in La Liga); Alaves concede 1.2 (7th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Sevilla LWLDL, lost 10 rating points; Alaves LDLLD, lost 16 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Sevilla
Bookmakers rate Sevilla higher than the model does: Sevilla 51% against the model's 45%, Alaves 22% against 29%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours Alaves
Sevilla won 1, drew 4 and lost 3 of the last 8 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
SevillaAlavesSevilla
6/10 over 2.5
15 scored
18 conceded
08/22
08/29
09/06
09/11
09/16
09/19
10/12
10/18
10/26
11/01
Alaves
5/10 over 2.5
12 scored
17 conceded
08/20
08/28
09/06
09/15
09/19
10/10
10/18
10/23
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 43%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 0-0
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Sevilla | Draw | Alaves |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla | 25%3.95 | 4%22.27 | 2%64.94 |
| Level | 17%5.89 | 16%6.32 | 11%9.37 |
| Alaves | 3%35.71 | 5%18.55 | 17%5.89 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Sevilla wins3Alaves wins- D Sevilla vs Alaves 1-1
- W Alaves vs Sevilla 1-2
- D Sevilla vs Alaves 1-1
- L Alaves vs Sevilla 2-1
- L Sevilla vs Alaves 2-3
- L Alaves vs Sevilla 4-3
- D Alaves vs Sevilla 0-0
- D Sevilla vs Alaves 2-2
8 meetings in the data. Results shown from Sevilla's side.