Leganes
Model pick
41%
Fair odds 2.44Bookmakers 46%
Albacete
32%
Fair odds 3.10Bookmakers 27%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Leganes | Draw | Albacete | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 41% | 27% | 32% |
| Elo model | 44% | 28% | 28% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 46% | 27% | 27% |
| Best price on offer | 2.00 | 3.50 | 3.65 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Neutral
Leganes and Albacete are rated almost level (1313 and 1322).
-
Home advantage Favours Leganes
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Leganes's chance of winning and takes the same from Albacete's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Leganes
Expected goals 1.5 to 1.3. Leganes score 0.8 a match against an average side (22nd in La Liga 2); Albacete concede 1.8 (22nd best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Albacete
Leganes LDLLL, lost 34 rating points; Albacete WWLLL, lost 12 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Leganes
Bookmakers rate Leganes higher than the model does: Leganes 46% against the model's 41%, Albacete 27% against 32%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Neutral
Leganes won 3, drew 0 and lost 3 of the last 6 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
LeganesAlbaceteLeganes
4/10 over 2.5
8 scored
19 conceded
08/29
09/04
09/13
09/20
09/28
10/03
10/11
10/16
10/24
11/02
Albacete
5/10 over 2.5
8 scored
19 conceded
08/29
09/06
09/12
09/18
09/25
10/03
10/12
10/17
10/25
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 49%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 0-0
- 2-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Leganes | Draw | Albacete |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leganes | 25%3.96 | 5%18.48 | 2%45.66 |
| Level | 14%7.06 | 15%6.46 | 13%7.99 |
| Albacete | 2%46.30 | 5%21.05 | 18%5.52 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Leganes wins3Albacete wins- W Leganes vs Albacete 2-1
- W Albacete vs Leganes 1-3
- L Albacete vs Leganes 1-0
- W Leganes vs Albacete 2-0
- L Albacete vs Leganes 1-0
- L Leganes vs Albacete 1-2
6 meetings in the data. Results shown from Leganes's side.