Boreham Wood
Model pick
80%
Fair odds 1.25
Aldershot
7%
Fair odds 13.79
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Boreham Wood | Draw | Aldershot | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 80% | 13% | 7% |
| Elo model | 74% | 19% | 7% |
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Favours Boreham Wood
Boreham Wood are rated 217 points above Aldershot (1226 to 1010), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Boreham Wood
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 6 points to Boreham Wood's chance of winning and takes the same from Aldershot's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Boreham Wood
Expected goals 3.0 to 0.8. Boreham Wood score 0.8 a match against an average side (1st in National League); Aldershot concede 3.6 (23rd best defence).
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Last 5 matches Favours Boreham Wood
Boreham Wood WWWWW, gained 25 rating points; Aldershot WLLLL, lost 31 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Boreham Wood
Boreham Wood won 5, drew 0 and lost 3 of the last 8 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Boreham WoodAldershotBoreham Wood
8/10 over 2.5
28 scored
9 conceded
09/12
09/16
09/19
09/26
10/03
10/09
10/24
10/27
10/31
Aldershot
5/10 over 2.5
12 scored
15 conceded
09/12
09/15
09/19
10/03
10/10
10/24
10/28
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-0
- 3-0
- 2-1
- 3-1
- 4-0
- 1-0
- 4-1
- 1-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 4 | 4 | 2 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Boreham Wood | Draw | Aldershot |
|---|---|---|---|
| Boreham Wood | 54%1.84 | 2%43.86 | 0%— |
| Level | 22%4.64 | 7%14.73 | 3%38.76 |
| Aldershot | 4%22.62 | 3%30.58 | 4%22.68 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
5Boreham Wood wins3Aldershot wins- W Aldershot vs Boreham Wood 1-2
- W Boreham Wood vs Aldershot 1-0
- W Aldershot vs Boreham Wood 0-3
- L Boreham Wood vs Aldershot 1-2
- W Aldershot vs Boreham Wood 0-1
- L Boreham Wood vs Aldershot 1-2
- L Aldershot vs Boreham Wood 2-1
- W Boreham Wood vs Aldershot 1-0
8 meetings in the data. Results shown from Boreham Wood's side.