Southend
Model pick
73%
Fair odds 1.37
Aldershot
11%
Fair odds 9.19
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Southend | Draw | Aldershot | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 73% | 16% | 11% |
| Elo model | 65% | 23% | 12% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Southend
Southend are rated 141 points above Aldershot (1150 to 1010), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Southend
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 7 points to Southend's chance of winning and takes the same from Aldershot's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Southend
Expected goals 2.6 to 0.9. Southend score 0.7 a match against an average side (3rd in National League); Aldershot concede 3.6 (23rd best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Southend
Southend LDDWW, barely moved; Aldershot WLLLL, lost 31 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Southend won 4, drew 3 and lost 3 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
SouthendAldershotSouthend
9/10 over 2.5
26 scored
19 conceded
09/12
09/19
09/26
09/30
10/03
10/24
10/31
Aldershot
5/10 over 2.5
12 scored
15 conceded
09/12
09/15
09/19
10/03
10/10
10/24
10/28
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-0
- 2-1
- 3-0
- 3-1
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 4-0
- 4-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 9 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Southend | Draw | Aldershot |
|---|---|---|---|
| Southend | 53%1.89 | 4%24.88 | 1%90.09 |
| Level | 18%5.71 | 9%11.38 | 5%21.69 |
| Aldershot | 3%36.63 | 3%34.01 | 5%18.42 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
4Southend wins3Aldershot wins- W Aldershot vs Southend 0-2
- W Southend vs Aldershot 3-0
- W Southend vs Aldershot 2-1
- D Aldershot vs Southend 0-0
- W Southend vs Aldershot 4-1
- D Aldershot vs Southend 1-1
- L Southend vs Aldershot 1-2
- L Aldershot vs Southend 2-0
- D Aldershot vs Southend 1-1
- L Southend vs Aldershot 2-3
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from Southend's side.