Ceuta
30%
Fair odds 3.29
Almeria
Model pick
46%
Fair odds 2.19
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Ceuta | Draw | Almeria | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 30% | 24% | 46% |
| Elo model | 23% | 27% | 51% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Almeria
Almeria are rated 166 points above Ceuta (1453 to 1286), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Ceuta
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Ceuta's chance of winning and takes the same from Almeria's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Almeria
Expected goals 1.4 to 1.8. Ceuta score 0.9 a match against an average side (20th in La Liga 2); Almeria concede 1.6 (14th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Almeria
Ceuta LLLLD, lost 28 rating points; Almeria DDWWW, gained 18 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
CeutaAlmeriaCeuta
6/10 over 2.5
9 scored
20 conceded
08/30
09/11
09/20
10/04
10/10
10/18
10/25
11/01
Almeria
5/10 over 2.5
20 scored
9 conceded
08/29
09/06
09/12
09/27
10/03
10/11
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 2-1
- 0-1
- 2-2
- 0-2
- 1-3
- 1-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 5 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Ceuta | Draw | Almeria |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ceuta | 18%5.64 | 5%19.05 | 3%31.95 |
| Level | 11%9.24 | 13%7.89 | 15%6.55 |
| Almeria | 2%44.44 | 5%19.46 | 28%3.60 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Ceuta wins1Almeria wins- L Almeria vs Ceuta 4-2
- W Ceuta vs Almeria 3-2
2 meetings in the data. Results shown from Ceuta's side.