Girona
Model pick
55%
Fair odds 1.83Bookmakers 46%
Almeria
23%
Fair odds 4.43Bookmakers 28%
The model and the bookmakers disagree. Girona: 55% here, 46% with bookmakers. Bookmakers are usually sharper, so read a gap as a reason to look closer, not a tip.
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Girona | Draw | Almeria | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 55% | 23% | 23% |
| Elo model | 48% | 27% | 25% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 46% | 27% | 28% |
| Best price on offer | 2.05 | 3.60 | 3.60 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Girona
Girona are rated 16 points above Almeria (1468 to 1453), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Girona
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Girona's chance of winning and takes the same from Almeria's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Girona
Expected goals 2.0 to 1.2. Girona score 1.2 a match against an average side (3rd in La Liga 2); Almeria concede 1.6 (14th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Almeria
Girona LWWDD, barely moved; Almeria DDWWW, gained 18 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Almeria
Bookmakers rate Almeria higher than the model does: Girona 46% against the model's 55%, Almeria 28% against 23%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Neutral
Girona won 3, drew 1 and lost 2 of the last 6 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
GironaAlmeriaGirona
4/10 over 2.5
20 scored
8 conceded
08/29
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/25
10/04
10/12
10/18
Almeria
5/10 over 2.5
20 scored
9 conceded
08/29
09/06
09/12
09/27
10/03
10/11
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 53%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 1-0
- 3-1
- 1-2
- 2-2
- 3-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Girona | Draw | Almeria |
|---|---|---|---|
| Girona | 35%2.89 | 5%20.96 | 2%59.17 |
| Level | 17%5.78 | 12%8.15 | 8%11.90 |
| Almeria | 3%30.49 | 5%20.75 | 13%7.76 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Girona wins2Almeria wins- D Almeria vs Girona 0-0
- W Girona vs Almeria 5-2
- W Girona vs Almeria 6-2
- L Almeria vs Girona 3-2
- W Almeria vs Girona 0-1
- L Girona vs Almeria 1-2
6 meetings in the data. Results shown from Girona's side.