Grazer AK
36%
Fair odds 2.76
Altach
Model pick
36%
Fair odds 2.75
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Grazer AK | Draw | Altach | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 36% | 27% | 36% |
| Elo model | 45% | 27% | 28% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Neutral
Grazer AK and Altach are rated almost level (1296 and 1300).
-
Home advantage Favours Grazer AK
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Grazer AK's chance of winning and takes the same from Altach's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.3 to 1.3. Grazer AK score 0.7 a match against an average side (11th in Austrian Bundesliga); Altach concede 2.1 (8th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Altach
Grazer AK LDLDD, lost 24 rating points; Altach DWLWL, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Grazer AK
Grazer AK won 4, drew 4 and lost 1 of the last 9 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Grazer AKAltachGrazer AK
6/10 over 2.5
8 scored
24 conceded
08/08
08/16
08/21
08/29
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/18
10/24
10/30
Altach
7/10 over 2.5
11 scored
16 conceded
08/07
08/15
08/22
08/29
09/12
09/19
10/11
10/18
10/23
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 0-1
- 1-0
- 1-2
- 2-1
- 0-0
- 0-2
- 2-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Grazer AK | Draw | Altach |
|---|---|---|---|
| Grazer AK | 26%3.81 | 7%15.13 | 3%37.88 |
| Level | 9%10.68 | 16%6.19 | 14%7.35 |
| Altach | 1%94.34 | 4%27.10 | 21%4.85 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
4Grazer AK wins1Altach wins- W Altach vs Grazer AK 1-2
- D Grazer AK vs Altach 2-2
- L Altach vs Grazer AK 1-0
- W Grazer AK vs Altach 3-1
- D Altach vs Grazer AK 1-1
- D Altach vs Grazer AK 2-2
- W Grazer AK vs Altach 1-0
- W Altach vs Grazer AK 1-2
- D Grazer AK vs Altach 1-1
9 meetings in the data. Results shown from Grazer AK's side.