Hartberg
Model pick
59%
Fair odds 1.69Bookmakers 38%
Altach
18%
Fair odds 5.69Bookmakers 35%
The model and the bookmakers disagree. Hartberg: 59% here, 38% with bookmakers; Altach: 18% here, 35% with bookmakers. Bookmakers are usually sharper, so read a gap as a reason to look closer, not a tip.
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Hartberg | Draw | Altach | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 59% | 23% | 18% |
| Elo model | 56% | 26% | 19% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 38% | 27% | 35% |
| Best price on offer | 2.48 | 3.50 | 2.70 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Hartberg
Hartberg are rated 68 points above Altach (1368 to 1300), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Hartberg
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Hartberg's chance of winning and takes the same from Altach's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Hartberg
Expected goals 1.9 to 0.9. Hartberg score 0.9 a match against an average side (5th in Austrian Bundesliga); Altach concede 2.1 (8th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Hartberg
Hartberg WWLWD, gained 21 rating points; Altach DWLWL, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Altach
Bookmakers rate Altach higher than the model does: Hartberg 38% against the model's 59%, Altach 35% against 18%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours Hartberg
Hartberg won 8, drew 7 and lost 2 of the last 17 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
HartbergAltachHartberg
7/10 over 2.5
20 scored
18 conceded
08/08
08/16
08/22
08/30
09/13
09/20
10/11
10/16
10/24
10/30
Altach
7/10 over 2.5
11 scored
16 conceded
08/07
08/15
08/22
08/29
09/12
09/19
10/11
10/18
10/23
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 2-1
- 3-0
- 0-0
- 3-1
- 0-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 11 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Hartberg | Draw | Altach |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hartberg | 33%3.04 | 2%44.64 | 0%— |
| Level | 22%4.57 | 13%7.58 | 4%24.69 |
| Altach | 5%20.24 | 7%14.58 | 14%7.38 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
8Hartberg wins2Altach wins- W Altach vs Hartberg 1-2
- D Hartberg vs Altach 0-0
- D Altach vs Hartberg 2-2
- W Hartberg vs Altach 2-0
- D Altach vs Hartberg 1-1
- D Altach vs Hartberg 0-0
- W Hartberg vs Altach 2-0
- W Altach vs Hartberg 1-2
- D Hartberg vs Altach 0-0
- W Altach vs Hartberg 0-1
17 meetings in the data. Results shown from Hartberg's side.