Harrogate
Model pick
64%
Fair odds 1.57
Altrincham
15%
Fair odds 6.52
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Harrogate | Draw | Altrincham | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 64% | 21% | 15% |
| Elo model | 58% | 25% | 17% |
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Favours Harrogate
Harrogate are rated 83 points above Altrincham (1153 to 1070), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Harrogate
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Harrogate's chance of winning and takes the same from Altrincham's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Harrogate
Expected goals 2.1 to 0.9. Harrogate score 0.7 a match against an average side (4th in National League); Altrincham concede 3.0 (12th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Harrogate DLWWW, gained 7 rating points; Altrincham LDWWL, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
HarrogateAltrinchamHarrogate
8/10 over 2.5
19 scored
14 conceded
09/15
09/19
09/26
09/29
10/10
10/24
10/28
10/31
Altrincham
8/10 over 2.5
17 scored
16 conceded
09/12
09/16
09/19
09/29
10/03
10/10
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-0
- 2-1
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 3-0
- 3-1
- 0-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Harrogate | Draw | Altrincham |
|---|---|---|---|
| Harrogate | 42%2.36 | 4%26.32 | 1%— |
| Level | 19%5.33 | 12%8.47 | 6%18.15 |
| Altrincham | 3%31.06 | 4%22.73 | 9%10.80 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.