Solihull
34%
Fair odds 2.97
Altrincham
Model pick
41%
Fair odds 2.43
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Solihull | Draw | Altrincham | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 34% | 25% | 41% |
| Elo model | 34% | 28% | 38% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Altrincham
Altrincham are rated 78 points above Solihull (1070 to 992), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Solihull
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Solihull's chance of winning and takes the same from Altrincham's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Altrincham
Expected goals 1.4 to 1.6. Solihull score 0.5 a match against an average side (20th in National League); Altrincham concede 3.0 (12th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Solihull WWLLL, lost 9 rating points; Altrincham LDWWL, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Solihull won 4, drew 2 and lost 4 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
SolihullAltrinchamSolihull
8/10 over 2.5
13 scored
23 conceded
09/12
09/15
09/18
09/26
09/29
10/03
10/24
10/27
Altrincham
8/10 over 2.5
17 scored
16 conceded
09/12
09/16
09/19
09/29
10/03
10/10
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 2-1
- 0-1
- 1-0
- 2-2
- 0-2
- 0-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 6 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Solihull | Draw | Altrincham |
|---|---|---|---|
| Solihull | 24%4.13 | 7%13.55 | 4%23.75 |
| Level | 9%11.48 | 13%7.46 | 16%6.18 |
| Altrincham | 1%86.96 | 3%28.99 | 21%4.69 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
4Solihull wins4Altrincham wins- W Solihull vs Altrincham 1-0
- L Altrincham vs Solihull 2-0
- D Altrincham vs Solihull 1-1
- D Solihull vs Altrincham 3-3
- L Solihull vs Altrincham 0-1
- L Altrincham vs Solihull 6-1
- L Altrincham vs Solihull 4-1
- W Solihull vs Altrincham 5-1
- W Solihull vs Altrincham 5-0
- W Altrincham vs Solihull 1-2
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from Solihull's side.