Galatasaray
Model pick
60%
Fair odds 1.68Bookmakers 66%
Amedspor
20%
Fair odds 5.10Bookmakers 15%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Galatasaray | Draw | Amedspor | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 60% | 21% | 20% |
| Elo model | 62% | 24% | 14% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 66% | 19% | 15% |
| Best price on offer | 1.44 | 5.00 | 6.50 |
Team news
- Abdülkerim Bardakcı Out
Rotation expected
Sanchez, Sallai and Leao are on the yellow-card threshold; Leao is expected to start and Barış Alper Yılmaz on the bench, per Turkish previews.
- Samuel Ballet Out
- Dilhan Demir Out
- Muhammed Hasan Yıldırım Doubtful
Reports conflict on Yira Sor: Turkish previews say he is back from a hamstring injury and expected to play, while one English preview lists him out; Mbaye Diagne is reported to be serving an indirect card suspension in one English preview.
Allowing for this news: Galatasaray 57%, draw 22%, Amedspor 21% (xG 2.10 – 1.22). This adjustment is being tested in the track record and isn't used in the prediction above yet.
Found by an AI web search. Reports can be wrong or out of date. Sources: sportsmole.co.uk, fotmob.com, mynet.com, fanatik.com.tr
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Galatasaray
Galatasaray are rated 115 points above Amedspor (1667 to 1552), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Galatasaray
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Galatasaray's chance of winning and takes the same from Amedspor's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Galatasaray
Expected goals 2.2 to 1.2. Galatasaray score 1.9 a match against an average side (1st in Süper Lig); Amedspor concede 1.2 (5th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Galatasaray WWWWW, gained 38 rating points; Amedspor WWWDW, gained 25 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Rest Favours Amedspor
Galatasaray will have had 4 days' rest, Amedspor 6. The model doesn't adjust for this.
Not in the model -
Bookmakers' view Favours Galatasaray
Bookmakers rate Galatasaray higher than the model does: Galatasaray 66% against the model's 60%, Amedspor 15% against 20%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
GalatasarayAmedsporGalatasaray
7/10 over 2.5
19 scored
15 conceded
09/09
09/13
09/19
10/09
10/13
10/17
10/21
10/26
10/30
11/03
Amedspor
8/10 over 2.5
25 scored
11 conceded
08/16
08/24
08/31
09/06
09/13
09/20
10/10
10/17
10/24
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 66%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-1
- 1-1
- 2-0
- 3-1
- 1-0
- 3-0
- 2-2
- 1-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Galatasaray | Draw | Amedspor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Galatasaray | 40%2.48 | 5%18.35 | 2%45.25 |
| Level | 17%5.91 | 11%9.17 | 8%11.88 |
| Amedspor | 3%35.46 | 4%27.25 | 9%10.70 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.