Club Brugge
Model pick
69%
Fair odds 1.45Bookmakers 62%
Anderlecht
13%
Fair odds 7.43Bookmakers 17%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Club Brugge | Draw | Anderlecht | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 69% | 17% | 13% |
| Elo model | 69% | 21% | 10% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 62% | 20% | 17% |
| Best price on offer | 1.53 | 4.80 | 5.75 |
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Favours Club Brugge
Club Brugge are rated 170 points above Anderlecht (1707 to 1537), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Club Brugge
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 7 points to Club Brugge's chance of winning and takes the same from Anderlecht's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Club Brugge
Expected goals 2.6 to 1.1. Club Brugge score 2.2 a match against an average side (1st in Belgian Pro League); Anderlecht concede 1.2 (5th best defence).
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Last 5 matches Favours Club Brugge
Club Brugge WWWWW, gained 32 rating points; Anderlecht WWLWL, gained 11 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Anderlecht
Bookmakers rate Anderlecht higher than the model does: Club Brugge 62% against the model's 69%, Anderlecht 17% against 13%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours Club Brugge
Club Brugge won 9, drew 5 and lost 2 of the last 16 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Club BruggeAnderlechtClub Brugge
9/10 over 2.5
29 scored
13 conceded
09/04
09/08
09/13
09/20
10/10
10/13
10/21
10/25
10/30
11/04
Anderlecht
6/10 over 2.5
16 scored
9 conceded
09/06
09/11
09/16
09/19
10/10
10/15
10/22
10/25
10/31
11/05
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 68%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 3-1
- 1-1
- 3-0
- 1-0
- 4-1
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 6 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 4 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Club Brugge | Draw | Anderlecht |
|---|---|---|---|
| Club Brugge | 46%2.19 | 4%25.64 | 1%80.65 |
| Level | 20%5.03 | 9%11.05 | 5%18.73 |
| Anderlecht | 4%25.64 | 4%26.39 | 7%13.97 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
9Club Brugge wins2Anderlecht wins- W Anderlecht vs Club Brugge 1-3
- W Club Brugge vs Anderlecht 4-2
- D Club Brugge vs Anderlecht 2-2
- L Anderlecht vs Club Brugge 1-0
- W Anderlecht vs Club Brugge 1-3
- W Club Brugge vs Anderlecht 2-0
- W Anderlecht vs Club Brugge 0-3
- W Club Brugge vs Anderlecht 2-1
- W Anderlecht vs Club Brugge 0-1
- W Club Brugge vs Anderlecht 3-1
16 meetings in the data. Results shown from Club Brugge's side.