OFI Crete
22%
Fair odds 4.59Bookmakers 27%
Anderlecht
Model pick
55%
Fair odds 1.83Bookmakers 48%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| OFI Crete | Draw | Anderlecht | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 22% | 24% | 55% |
| Elo model | 23% | 27% | 50% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 27% | 25% | 48% |
| Best price on offer | 3.64 | 3.89 | 2.02 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Anderlecht
Anderlecht are rated 161 points above OFI Crete (1537 to 1376), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours OFI Crete
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to OFI Crete's chance of winning and takes the same from Anderlecht's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Anderlecht
Expected goals 1.1 to 1.9. OFI Crete score 0.9 a match against an average side (5th in Greek Super League); Anderlecht concede 1.2 (5th best defence in Belgian Pro League).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
OFI Crete WWWLL, gained 21 rating points; Anderlecht WWLWL, gained 11 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours OFI Crete
Bookmakers rate OFI Crete higher than the model does: OFI Crete 27% against the model's 22%, Anderlecht 48% against 55%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
OFI CreteAnderlechtOFI Crete
5/10 over 2.5
14 scored
14 conceded
09/12
09/17
09/20
10/10
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
11/01
11/05
Anderlecht
6/10 over 2.5
16 scored
9 conceded
09/06
09/11
09/16
09/19
10/10
10/15
10/22
10/25
10/31
11/05
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 59%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 0-2
- 1-3
- 2-1
- 0-0
- 0-3
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 1 | 5 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | OFI Crete | Draw | Anderlecht |
|---|---|---|---|
| OFI Crete | 11%9.48 | 3%30.03 | 2%59.52 |
| Level | 9%10.60 | 13%7.60 | 14%7.41 |
| Anderlecht | 2%44.44 | 6%15.87 | 40%2.51 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.