Almeria
Model pick
48%
Fair odds 2.08
Andorra
28%
Fair odds 3.54
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Almeria | Draw | Andorra | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 48% | 24% | 28% |
| Elo model | 62% | 24% | 14% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Almeria
Almeria are rated 115 points above Andorra (1453 to 1338), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Almeria
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Almeria's chance of winning and takes the same from Andorra's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Almeria
Expected goals 1.9 to 1.4. Almeria score 1.2 a match against an average side (2nd in La Liga 2); Andorra concede 1.5 (10th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Almeria DDWWW, gained 18 rating points; Andorra LLWDW, gained 7 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
AlmeriaAndorraAlmeria
5/10 over 2.5
20 scored
9 conceded
08/29
09/06
09/12
09/27
10/03
10/11
10/24
10/31
Andorra
5/10 over 2.5
10 scored
19 conceded
08/30
09/05
09/19
09/26
10/04
10/11
10/18
10/26
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-2
- 2-0
- 1-0
- 2-2
- 3-1
- 0-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 7 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Almeria | Draw | Andorra |
|---|---|---|---|
| Almeria | 31%3.21 | 6%17.36 | 3%38.17 |
| Level | 15%6.75 | 12%8.03 | 11%9.06 |
| Andorra | 3%37.31 | 4%22.32 | 15%6.65 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Almeria wins0Andorra wins- W Almeria vs Andorra 3-2
- W Andorra vs Almeria 1-2
2 meetings in the data. Results shown from Almeria's side.