Paris FC
Model pick
72%
Fair odds 1.40
Angers
10%
Fair odds 9.77
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Paris FC | Draw | Angers | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 72% | 18% | 10% |
| Elo model | 62% | 24% | 14% |
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Favours Paris FC
Paris FC are rated 114 points above Angers (1531 to 1417), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Paris FC
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Paris FC's chance of winning and takes the same from Angers's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Paris FC
Expected goals 2.3 to 0.8. Paris FC score 1.5 a match against an average side (4th in Ligue 1); Angers concede 1.6 (18th best defence).
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Last 5 matches Favours Paris FC
Paris FC WLWLW, gained 13 rating points; Angers LDLLW, lost 19 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Paris FC won 1, drew 1 and lost 2 of the last 4 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Paris FCAngersParis FC
7/10 over 2.5
18 scored
11 conceded
05/17
08/22
08/30
09/06
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/18
10/24
11/01
Angers
4/10 over 2.5
10 scored
18 conceded
05/17
08/23
08/29
09/06
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/18
10/25
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-0
- 1-0
- 3-0
- 2-1
- 1-1
- 3-1
- 4-0
- 0-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 10 | 9 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Paris FC | Draw | Angers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paris FC | 45%2.21 | 3%36.50 | 1%— |
| Level | 23%4.35 | 11%9.37 | 4%26.04 |
| Angers | 4%26.67 | 4%25.25 | 6%16.13 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Paris FC wins2Angers wins- D Paris FC vs Angers 0-0
- L Angers vs Paris FC 1-0
- W Paris FC vs Angers 3-1
- L Angers vs Paris FC 2-0
4 meetings in the data. Results shown from Paris FC's side.