Boulogne
Model pick
39%
Fair odds 2.59Bookmakers 39%
Annecy
33%
Fair odds 3.08Bookmakers 31%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Boulogne | Draw | Annecy | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 39% | 29% | 33% |
| Elo model | 37% | 28% | 35% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 39% | 31% | 31% |
| Best price on offer | 2.45 | 3.10 | 3.20 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Annecy
Annecy are rated 59 points above Boulogne (1379 to 1321), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Boulogne
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Boulogne's chance of winning and takes the same from Annecy's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.3 to 1.1. Boulogne score 0.9 a match against an average side (15th in Ligue 2); Annecy concede 1.4 (7th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Boulogne
Boulogne LDWDL, gained 7 rating points; Annecy LWLWL, lost 16 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Neutral
Bookmakers' average price agrees with the model to within a few points (Boulogne 39%, Annecy 31%).
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
BoulogneAnnecyBoulogne
1/10 over 2.5
7 scored
8 conceded
08/14
08/21
08/28
09/04
09/11
09/19
10/09
10/16
10/26
10/30
Annecy
7/10 over 2.5
13 scored
15 conceded
08/14
08/24
08/29
09/04
09/12
09/18
10/09
10/16
10/23
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 41%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 0-0
- 0-1
- 2-1
- 1-2
- 2-0
- 0-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 11 | 14 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Boulogne | Draw | Annecy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Boulogne | 21%4.73 | 4%23.64 | 1%72.46 |
| Level | 16%6.37 | 18%5.56 | 12%8.53 |
| Annecy | 2%42.55 | 6%18.05 | 20%5.01 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
0Boulogne wins1Annecy wins- L Boulogne vs Annecy 1-2
- D Annecy vs Boulogne 1-1
2 meetings in the data. Results shown from Boulogne's side.