Waregem
Model pick
47%
Fair odds 2.12
Antwerp
29%
Fair odds 3.47
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Waregem | Draw | Antwerp | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 47% | 24% | 29% |
| Elo model | 44% | 28% | 29% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Antwerp
Antwerp are rated 13 points above Waregem (1473 to 1460), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Waregem
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Waregem's chance of winning and takes the same from Antwerp's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Waregem
Expected goals 1.8 to 1.4. Waregem score 1.2 a match against an average side (11th in Belgian Pro League); Antwerp concede 1.5 (14th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Antwerp
Waregem LLLLL, lost 49 rating points; Antwerp LWLLL, lost 13 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Antwerp
Waregem won 2, drew 0 and lost 4 of the last 6 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
WaregemAntwerpWaregem
6/10 over 2.5
12 scored
16 conceded
08/09
08/15
08/22
08/30
09/06
09/13
09/19
10/10
10/24
10/30
Antwerp
8/10 over 2.5
16 scored
22 conceded
08/09
08/15
08/22
08/30
09/05
09/13
09/20
10/11
10/24
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 1-2
- 2-0
- 2-2
- 3-1
- 0-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 7 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Waregem | Draw | Antwerp |
|---|---|---|---|
| Waregem | 26%3.79 | 4%22.83 | 2%57.47 |
| Level | 17%5.77 | 13%7.73 | 10%10.17 |
| Antwerp | 4%26.11 | 6%17.04 | 18%5.66 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Waregem wins4Antwerp wins- L Antwerp vs Waregem 2-1
- W Waregem vs Antwerp 2-0
- L Waregem vs Antwerp 0-2
- L Antwerp vs Waregem 1-0
- L Antwerp vs Waregem 1-0
- W Waregem vs Antwerp 2-1
6 meetings in the data. Results shown from Waregem's side.