Salzburg
Model pick
75%
Fair odds 1.33Bookmakers 75%
Ararat-Armenia
10%
Fair odds 10.45Bookmakers 10%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Salzburg | Draw | Ararat-Armenia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 75% | 15% | 10% |
| Elo model | 65% | 23% | 12% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 75% | 15% | 10% |
| Best price on offer | 1.27 | 6.69 | 11.90 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Salzburg
Salzburg are rated 141 points above Ararat-Armenia (1460 to 1319), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Salzburg
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 7 points to Salzburg's chance of winning and takes the same from Ararat-Armenia's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Salzburg
Expected goals 2.7 to 0.9. Salzburg score 1.3 a match against an average side (3rd in Austrian Bundesliga); Ararat-Armenia concede 2.2.
-
Last 5 matches Favours Salzburg
Salzburg LWWDW, gained 20 rating points; Ararat-Armenia LLLL, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Neutral
Bookmakers' average price agrees with the model to within a few points (Salzburg 75%, Ararat-Armenia 10%).
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
SalzburgArarat-ArmeniaSalzburg
6/10 over 2.5
18 scored
11 conceded
09/11
09/17
09/20
10/10
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
11/01
11/05
Ararat-Armenia
4/4 over 2.5
4 scored
14 conceded
09/16
10/15
10/22
11/05
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-0
- 3-0
- 2-1
- 3-1
- 1-0
- 1-1
- 4-0
- 4-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 9 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Salzburg | Draw | Ararat-Armenia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Salzburg | 34%2.91 | 1%— | 0%— |
| Level | 30%3.29 | 7%14.37 | 2%55.87 |
| Ararat-Armenia | 11%9.21 | 7%15.13 | 8%12.69 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.