Juve Stabia
Model pick
55%
Fair odds 1.81Bookmakers 53%
Arezzo
20%
Fair odds 4.97Bookmakers 21%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Juve Stabia | Draw | Arezzo | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 55% | 25% | 20% |
| Elo model | 52% | 26% | 22% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 53% | 26% | 21% |
| Best price on offer | 1.81 | 3.60 | 5.00 |
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Favours Juve Stabia
Juve Stabia are rated 45 points above Arezzo (1360 to 1315), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Juve Stabia
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Juve Stabia's chance of winning and takes the same from Arezzo's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Juve Stabia
Expected goals 1.8 to 1.0. Juve Stabia score 0.9 a match against an average side (10th in Serie B); Arezzo concede 1.8 (19th best defence).
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Last 5 matches Favours Juve Stabia
Juve Stabia DLWWD, gained 14 rating points; Arezzo DLLWD, lost 15 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Neutral
Bookmakers' average price agrees with the model to within a few points (Juve Stabia 53%, Arezzo 21%).
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Juve StabiaArezzoJuve Stabia
4/10 over 2.5
11 scored
11 conceded
08/23
08/29
09/06
09/12
09/18
10/10
10/18
10/24
10/28
11/01
Arezzo
7/10 over 2.5
9 scored
19 conceded
08/22
08/30
09/06
09/11
09/20
10/10
10/18
10/24
10/28
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 49%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 2-1
- 0-0
- 3-0
- 0-1
- 3-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Juve Stabia | Draw | Arezzo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Juve Stabia | 32%3.16 | 4%26.25 | 1%97.09 |
| Level | 21%4.81 | 15%6.86 | 8%13.11 |
| Arezzo | 3%28.99 | 5%19.38 | 12%8.39 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.