Asteras Tripolis
35%
Fair odds 2.82
Aris
Model pick
37%
Fair odds 2.72
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Asteras Tripolis | Draw | Aris | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 35% | 28% | 37% |
| Elo model | 32% | 28% | 40% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Aris
Aris are rated 94 points above Asteras Tripolis (1389 to 1296), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Asteras Tripolis
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Asteras Tripolis's chance of winning and takes the same from Aris's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.3 to 1.3. Asteras Tripolis score 0.8 a match against an average side (12th in Greek Super League); Aris concede 1.6 (5th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Asteras Tripolis LDLWD, barely moved; Aris LWWWD, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Aris
Asteras Tripolis won 2, drew 2 and lost 8 of the last 12 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Asteras TripolisArisAsteras Tripolis
6/10 over 2.5
10 scored
18 conceded
05/21
08/23
08/30
09/07
09/13
09/20
10/10
10/18
10/24
11/01
Aris
8/10 over 2.5
16 scored
17 conceded
05/17
08/22
08/30
09/05
09/13
09/19
10/11
10/18
10/25
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 0-1
- 1-0
- 0-0
- 1-2
- 2-1
- 0-2
- 2-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Asteras Tripolis | Draw | Aris |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asteras Tripolis | 20%5.09 | 4%22.52 | 2%59.52 |
| Level | 14%7.12 | 17%6.00 | 13%7.91 |
| Aris | 2%43.10 | 6%17.79 | 23%4.36 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Asteras Tripolis wins8Aris wins- L Asteras Tripolis vs Aris 0-1
- D Aris vs Asteras Tripolis 0-0
- L Aris vs Asteras Tripolis 4-2
- L Asteras Tripolis vs Aris 0-2
- W Asteras Tripolis vs Aris 2-1
- D Aris vs Asteras Tripolis 1-1
- W Asteras Tripolis vs Aris 3-2
- L Aris vs Asteras Tripolis 3-2
- L Aris vs Asteras Tripolis 3-0
- L Asteras Tripolis vs Aris 0-2
12 meetings in the data. Results shown from Asteras Tripolis's side.