Famalicao
Model pick
44%
Fair odds 2.28Bookmakers 41%
Arouca
28%
Fair odds 3.52Bookmakers 30%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Famalicao | Draw | Arouca | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 44% | 28% | 28% |
| Elo model | 47% | 27% | 26% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 41% | 29% | 30% |
| Best price on offer | 2.35 | 3.40 | 3.40 |
Team news
- Rodrigo Pinheiro Out
- Matheus Mattara Out
Sources conflict on Mathias de Amorim (listed injured by some previews, but WhoScored says he returned and started vs Braga) and on Fabian van Breemen (one report says meniscus injury, WhoScored expects him back); neither is listed as out here. Mattara's position was not confirmed by sources. Matheus Colombo was listed injured on one older-dated page only, so not included.
- Miguel Puche Out
- Pedro Santos Out
Coach Vitor Severino confirmed Puche and Pedro Santos are out at his pre-match press conference; Nino Galovic is listed injured by two preview sites but not confirmed by a club or press source, so not included. Positions were not confirmed by sources for Puche and Pedro Santos.
Allowing for this news: Famalicao 44%, draw 27%, Arouca 28% (xG 1.45 – 1.11). This adjustment is being tested in the track record and isn't used in the prediction above yet.
Found by an AI web search. Reports can be wrong or out of date. Sources: maisfutebol.iol.pt, noticiasaominuto.com, sportsmole.co.uk, whoscored.com
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Neutral
Famalicao and Arouca are rated almost level (1526 and 1518).
-
Home advantage Favours Famalicao
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Famalicao's chance of winning and takes the same from Arouca's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Famalicao
Expected goals 1.4 to 1.1. Famalicao score 1.2 a match against an average side (8th in Primeira Liga); Arouca concede 1.2 (9th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Famalicao LWLWD, barely moved; Arouca WWWDL, gained 14 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Arouca
Bookmakers rate Arouca higher than the model does: Famalicao 41% against the model's 44%, Arouca 30% against 28%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Neutral
Famalicao won 3, drew 3 and lost 4 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
FamalicaoAroucaFamalicao
6/10 over 2.5
14 scored
14 conceded
08/07
08/16
08/23
08/30
09/05
09/13
09/19
10/12
10/25
11/01
Arouca
4/10 over 2.5
13 scored
7 conceded
08/16
08/23
08/29
09/07
09/13
09/19
10/11
10/24
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 44%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 0-0
- 0-1
- 2-0
- 1-2
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Famalicao | Draw | Arouca |
|---|---|---|---|
| Famalicao | 28%3.56 | 6%17.54 | 2%48.31 |
| Level | 15%6.83 | 17%5.92 | 12%8.10 |
| Arouca | 2%57.80 | 4%24.75 | 15%6.88 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Famalicao wins4Arouca wins- W Famalicao vs Arouca 1-0
- D Arouca vs Famalicao 1-1
- W Arouca vs Famalicao 1-2
- D Famalicao vs Arouca 0-0
- L Arouca vs Famalicao 3-2
- W Famalicao vs Arouca 1-0
- L Famalicao vs Arouca 0-1
- L Arouca vs Famalicao 4-1
- D Famalicao vs Arouca 0-0
- L Arouca vs Famalicao 2-1
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from Famalicao's side.