Newcastle
20%
Fair odds 4.98
Arsenal
Model pick
55%
Fair odds 1.83
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Newcastle | Draw | Arsenal | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 20% | 25% | 55% |
| Elo model | 19% | 26% | 55% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Arsenal
Arsenal are rated 198 points above Newcastle (1772 to 1573), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Newcastle
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Newcastle's chance of winning and takes the same from Arsenal's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Arsenal
Expected goals 0.9 to 1.7. Newcastle score 1.5 a match against an average side (13th in Premier League); Arsenal concede 0.6 (1st best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Arsenal
Newcastle LWLLW, lost 12 rating points; Arsenal WWWDW, gained 18 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Arsenal
Newcastle won 3, drew 1 and lost 6 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
NewcastleArsenalNewcastle
5/10 over 2.5
12 scored
17 conceded
05/24
08/23
08/29
09/05
09/14
09/19
10/12
10/17
10/25
11/02
Arsenal
5/10 over 2.5
16 scored
7 conceded
09/09
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/13
10/18
10/21
10/24
11/01
11/04
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 0-1
- 0-2
- 1-2
- 0-0
- 1-0
- 0-3
- 1-3
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 6 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Newcastle | Draw | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle | 13%7.50 | 6%16.69 | 4%25.84 |
| Level | 7%15.36 | 15%6.55 | 22%4.64 |
| Arsenal | 1%— | 3%32.15 | 30%3.37 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Newcastle wins6Arsenal wins- L Arsenal vs Newcastle 1-0
- L Newcastle vs Arsenal 1-2
- L Arsenal vs Newcastle 1-0
- W Newcastle vs Arsenal 1-0
- L Arsenal vs Newcastle 4-1
- W Newcastle vs Arsenal 1-0
- L Newcastle vs Arsenal 0-2
- D Arsenal vs Newcastle 0-0
- W Newcastle vs Arsenal 2-0
- L Arsenal vs Newcastle 2-0
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from Newcastle's side.