Galatasaray
Model pick
46%
Fair odds 2.18
Aston Villa
31%
Fair odds 3.22
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Galatasaray | Draw | Aston Villa | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 46% | 23% | 31% |
| Elo model | 48% | 27% | 25% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Galatasaray
Galatasaray are rated 16 points above Aston Villa (1667 to 1651), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Galatasaray
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Galatasaray's chance of winning and takes the same from Aston Villa's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Galatasaray
Expected goals 1.9 to 1.6. Galatasaray score 1.9 a match against an average side (1st in Süper Lig); Aston Villa concede 0.9 (5th best defence in Premier League).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Galatasaray
Galatasaray WWWWW, gained 38 rating points; Aston Villa LDWWW, gained 7 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
GalatasarayAston VillaGalatasaray
7/10 over 2.5
19 scored
15 conceded
09/09
09/13
09/19
10/09
10/13
10/17
10/21
10/26
10/30
11/03
Aston Villa
8/10 over 2.5
22 scored
14 conceded
09/08
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/14
10/17
10/21
10/24
10/31
11/03
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-2
- 2-2
- 2-0
- 3-1
- 1-0
- 0-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 6 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Galatasaray | Draw | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Galatasaray | 34%2.93 | 9%11.71 | 6%17.79 |
| Level | 11%9.17 | 11%9.02 | 15%6.78 |
| Aston Villa | 1%74.63 | 3%39.53 | 11%8.98 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.