Man United
36%
Fair odds 2.75Bookmakers 44%
Aston Villa
Model pick
39%
Fair odds 2.60Bookmakers 31%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Man United | Draw | Aston Villa | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 36% | 25% | 39% |
| Elo model | 35% | 28% | 37% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 44% | 25% | 31% |
| Best price on offer | 2.20 | 3.80 | 3.30 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Aston Villa
Aston Villa are rated 71 points above Man United (1651 to 1579), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Man United
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Man United's chance of winning and takes the same from Aston Villa's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.5 to 1.6. Man United score 1.6 a match against an average side (8th in Premier League); Aston Villa concede 0.9 (5th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Aston Villa
Man United WLLLD, lost 28 rating points; Aston Villa LDWWW, gained 7 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Man United
Bookmakers rate Man United higher than the model does: Man United 44% against the model's 36%, Aston Villa 31% against 39%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours Man United
Man United won 5, drew 2 and lost 3 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Man UnitedAston VillaMan United
4/10 over 2.5
11 scored
17 conceded
09/10
09/13
09/20
10/10
10/13
10/18
10/21
10/25
10/31
11/03
Aston Villa
8/10 over 2.5
22 scored
14 conceded
09/08
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/14
10/17
10/21
10/24
10/31
11/03
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 60%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 2-1
- 0-1
- 1-0
- 2-2
- 0-2
- 2-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Man United | Draw | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Man United | 25%3.92 | 8%12.69 | 5%19.61 |
| Level | 10%9.85 | 13%7.55 | 18%5.64 |
| Aston Villa | 1%81.97 | 3%33.22 | 16%6.18 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
5Man United wins3Aston Villa wins- W Man United vs Aston Villa 3-1
- L Aston Villa vs Man United 2-1
- W Man United vs Aston Villa 2-0
- D Aston Villa vs Man United 0-0
- W Aston Villa vs Man United 1-2
- W Man United vs Aston Villa 3-2
- W Man United vs Aston Villa 1-0
- L Aston Villa vs Man United 3-1
- D Aston Villa vs Man United 2-2
- L Man United vs Aston Villa 0-1
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from Man United's side.