Borac Banja Luka
32%
Fair odds 3.10
Atalanta
Model pick
42%
Fair odds 2.40
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Borac Banja Luka | Draw | Atalanta | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 32% | 26% | 42% |
| Elo model | 26% | 27% | 47% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Atalanta
Atalanta are rated 142 points above Borac Banja Luka (1523 to 1382), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Borac Banja Luka
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Borac Banja Luka's chance of winning and takes the same from Atalanta's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Atalanta
Expected goals 1.3 to 1.5. Borac Banja Luka score 0.9 a match against an average side; Atalanta concede 1.4 (16th best defence in Serie A).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Borac Banja Luka
Borac Banja Luka LWLLD, gained 23 rating points; Atalanta DLDDL, lost 40 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
Borac Banja LukaAtalantaBorac Banja Luka
4/10 over 2.5
8 scored
11 conceded
11/28
12/19
03/06
03/13
10/15
10/22
11/05
Atalanta
7/10 over 2.5
16 scored
21 conceded
09/12
09/20
10/12
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
10/29
11/02
11/05
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 0-2
- 0-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Borac Banja Luka | Draw | Atalanta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Borac Banja Luka | 23%4.38 | 7%13.89 | 4%25.45 |
| Level | 9%11.35 | 15%6.87 | 17%5.93 |
| Atalanta | 1%94.34 | 3%29.33 | 21%4.69 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.