Monza
Model pick
41%
Fair odds 2.41Bookmakers 29%
Atalanta
34%
Fair odds 2.95Bookmakers 46%
The model and the bookmakers disagree. Monza: 41% here, 29% with bookmakers; Atalanta: 34% here, 46% with bookmakers. Bookmakers are usually sharper, so read a gap as a reason to look closer, not a tip.
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Monza | Draw | Atalanta | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 41% | 25% | 34% |
| Elo model | 31% | 28% | 41% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 29% | 25% | 46% |
| Best price on offer | 3.50 | 4.00 | 2.15 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Atalanta
Atalanta are rated 97 points above Monza (1523 to 1426), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Monza
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Monza's chance of winning and takes the same from Atalanta's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Monza
Expected goals 1.7 to 1.5. Monza score 1.2 a match against an average side (12th in Serie A); Atalanta concede 1.4 (16th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Monza
Monza LLLWL, lost 8 rating points; Atalanta DLDDL, lost 40 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Rest Favours Monza
Atalanta will have had 3 days' rest, Monza 8. The model doesn't adjust for this.
Not in the model -
Bookmakers' view Favours Atalanta
Bookmakers rate Atalanta higher than the model does: Monza 29% against the model's 41%, Atalanta 46% against 34%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours Atalanta
Monza won 0, drew 0 and lost 6 of the last 6 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
MonzaAtalantaMonza
9/10 over 2.5
17 scored
24 conceded
08/22
08/29
09/06
09/13
09/18
10/11
10/19
10/23
10/28
10/31
Atalanta
7/10 over 2.5
16 scored
21 conceded
09/12
09/20
10/12
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
10/29
11/02
11/05
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 61%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-2
- 1-0
- 2-2
- 2-0
- 0-1
- 0-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 7 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Monza | Draw | Atalanta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monza | 21%4.74 | 4%26.53 | 2%66.67 |
| Level | 17%6.04 | 13%7.69 | 10%10.05 |
| Atalanta | 4%23.36 | 7%14.39 | 23%4.37 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
0Monza wins6Atalanta wins- L Monza vs Atalanta 0-4
- L Atalanta vs Monza 2-0
- L Monza vs Atalanta 1-2
- L Atalanta vs Monza 3-0
- L Atalanta vs Monza 5-2
- L Monza vs Atalanta 0-2
6 meetings in the data. Results shown from Monza's side.