Osasuna
33%
Fair odds 3.04Bookmakers 26%
Ath Bilbao
Model pick
40%
Fair odds 2.53Bookmakers 46%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Osasuna | Draw | Ath Bilbao | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 33% | 27% | 40% |
| Elo model | 36% | 28% | 36% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 26% | 28% | 46% |
| Best price on offer | 3.75 | 3.50 | 2.12 |
Team news
- Aimar Oroz Out
- Romain Del Castillo Out
- Jorge Herrando Doubtful
Reports say Osasuna's three injured players are working apart from the squad; Arrasate expects most to return after the international break. Earlier reports of Osasuna suspensions and Iker Benito's injury are not repeated in the latest previews, so I have not listed them.
- Gorka Guruzeta Out
- Maroan Sannadi Out
- Unai Egiluz Out
Nico Williams and Yuri Berchiche rejoined training and are available; Oihan Sancet and Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta returned to group work (Athletic said some absences are load management). Asier Hierro reportedly has a partial cruciate tear, so Athletic lack a recognised No. 9. One EFE report lists only Sannadi and Guruzeta as sure absences, so Egiluz's status is per other outlets.
Allowing for this news: Osasuna 33%, draw 28%, Ath Bilbao 39% (xG 1.23 – 1.37). This adjustment is being tested in the track record and isn't used in the prediction above yet.
Found by an AI web search. Reports can be wrong or out of date. Sources: futbolfantasy.com, futbolfantasy.com, comuniate.com, infobae.com
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Ath Bilbao
Ath Bilbao are rated 64 points above Osasuna (1503 to 1439), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Osasuna
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Osasuna's chance of winning and takes the same from Ath Bilbao's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.2 to 1.4. Osasuna score 1.1 a match against an average side (17th in La Liga); Ath Bilbao concede 1.1 (4th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Ath Bilbao
Osasuna LLWLD, lost 13 rating points; Ath Bilbao WWLDD, gained 6 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Ath Bilbao
Bookmakers rate Ath Bilbao higher than the model does: Osasuna 26% against the model's 33%, Ath Bilbao 46% against 40%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours Ath Bilbao
Osasuna won 1, drew 4 and lost 5 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
OsasunaAth BilbaoOsasuna
5/10 over 2.5
11 scored
22 conceded
08/27
08/31
09/06
09/12
09/16
09/19
10/11
10/26
11/02
Ath Bilbao
5/10 over 2.5
14 scored
10 conceded
08/22
08/27
08/30
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/17
10/21
10/25
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 45%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 1-0
- 0-0
- 2-1
- 0-2
- 2-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Osasuna | Draw | Ath Bilbao |
|---|---|---|---|
| Osasuna | 20%4.93 | 6%17.30 | 3%36.23 |
| Level | 12%8.59 | 16%6.12 | 16%6.24 |
| Ath Bilbao | 2%64.94 | 4%23.42 | 21%4.68 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Osasuna wins5Ath Bilbao wins- L Ath Bilbao vs Osasuna 1-0
- D Osasuna vs Ath Bilbao 1-1
- D Ath Bilbao vs Osasuna 0-0
- L Osasuna vs Ath Bilbao 1-2
- D Ath Bilbao vs Osasuna 2-2
- L Osasuna vs Ath Bilbao 0-2
- W Osasuna vs Ath Bilbao 2-0
- D Ath Bilbao vs Osasuna 0-0
- L Ath Bilbao vs Osasuna 2-0
- L Osasuna vs Ath Bilbao 1-3
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from Osasuna's side.