Getafe
20%
Fair odds 4.91
Ath Madrid
Model pick
53%
Fair odds 1.88
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Getafe | Draw | Ath Madrid | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 20% | 26% | 53% |
| Elo model | 20% | 26% | 54% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Ath Madrid
Ath Madrid are rated 185 points above Getafe (1632 to 1447), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Getafe
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Getafe's chance of winning and takes the same from Ath Madrid's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Ath Madrid
Expected goals 0.9 to 1.6. Getafe score 0.9 a match against an average side (20th in La Liga); Ath Madrid concede 1.0 (3rd best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Ath Madrid
Getafe LWLLD, lost 22 rating points; Ath Madrid LWWDW, gained 6 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Ath Madrid
Getafe won 1, drew 2 and lost 7 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
GetafeAth MadridGetafe
4/10 over 2.5
9 scored
18 conceded
09/13
09/17
09/20
10/10
10/15
10/19
10/22
10/25
11/01
11/05
Ath Madrid
4/10 over 2.5
18 scored
5 conceded
09/13
09/16
09/20
10/10
10/13
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
11/03
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 0-1
- 1-1
- 0-2
- 1-2
- 0-0
- 1-0
- 0-3
- 2-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 13 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Getafe | Draw | Ath Madrid |
|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe | 13%7.84 | 5%18.59 | 3%32.05 |
| Level | 7%13.74 | 16%6.07 | 21%4.87 |
| Ath Madrid | 1%— | 3%28.65 | 30%3.32 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Getafe wins7Ath Madrid wins- L Ath Madrid vs Getafe 1-0
- L Getafe vs Ath Madrid 0-1
- W Getafe vs Ath Madrid 2-1
- L Ath Madrid vs Getafe 1-0
- L Getafe vs Ath Madrid 0-3
- D Ath Madrid vs Getafe 3-3
- D Ath Madrid vs Getafe 1-1
- L Getafe vs Ath Madrid 0-3
- L Ath Madrid vs Getafe 4-3
- L Getafe vs Ath Madrid 1-2
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from Getafe's side.