Puebla
34%
Fair odds 2.93
Atl. San Luis
Model pick
40%
Fair odds 2.53
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Puebla | Draw | Atl. San Luis | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 34% | 26% | 40% |
| Elo model | 36% | 28% | 36% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Atl. San Luis
Atl. San Luis are rated 68 points above Puebla (1341 to 1273), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Puebla
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Puebla's chance of winning and takes the same from Atl. San Luis's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.4 to 1.5. Puebla score 0.7 a match against an average side (18th in Liga MX); Atl. San Luis concede 1.9 (14th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Atl. San Luis
Puebla LLLDD, lost 18 rating points; Atl. San Luis LWWDL, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Atl. San Luis
Puebla won 1, drew 2 and lost 7 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
PueblaAtl. San LuisPuebla
3/10 over 2.5
8 scored
16 conceded
08/30
09/12
09/16
09/19
09/27
10/10
10/17
10/22
10/25
10/31
Atl. San Luis
6/10 over 2.5
14 scored
14 conceded
08/31
09/06
09/15
09/20
09/27
10/18
10/21
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 0-0
- 0-2
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 2 | |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Puebla | Draw | Atl. San Luis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Puebla | 25%4.04 | 7%13.91 | 4%27.78 |
| Level | 9%11.29 | 15%6.81 | 16%6.42 |
| Atl. San Luis | 1%94.34 | 3%28.90 | 21%4.80 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Puebla wins7Atl. San Luis wins- W Atl. San Luis vs Puebla 0-1
- L Puebla vs Atl. San Luis 0-2
- L Puebla vs Atl. San Luis 1-2
- L Atl. San Luis vs Puebla 2-0
- L Atl. San Luis vs Puebla 4-0
- L Puebla vs Atl. San Luis 1-2
- L Atl. San Luis vs Puebla 2-0
- D Puebla vs Atl. San Luis 0-0
- L Atl. San Luis vs Puebla 2-1
- D Puebla vs Atl. San Luis 2-2
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from Puebla's side.