Banfield
Model pick
39%
Fair odds 2.57Bookmakers 39%
Atl. Tucuman
32%
Fair odds 3.12Bookmakers 31%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Banfield | Draw | Atl. Tucuman | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 39% | 29% | 32% |
| Elo model | 44% | 28% | 29% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 39% | 30% | 31% |
| Best price on offer | 2.42 | 3.25 | 3.10 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Atl. Tucuman
Atl. Tucuman are rated 13 points above Banfield (1314 to 1301), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Banfield
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Banfield's chance of winning and takes the same from Atl. Tucuman's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.2 to 1.1. Banfield score 0.7 a match against an average side (23rd in Liga Profesional); Atl. Tucuman concede 1.7 (21st best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Banfield LDLWD, barely moved; Atl. Tucuman LWLDL, lost 7 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Neutral
Bookmakers' average price agrees with the model to within a few points (Banfield 39%, Atl. Tucuman 31%).
Not in the model -
Past meetings Neutral
Banfield won 2, drew 5 and lost 1 of the last 8 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
BanfieldAtl. TucumanBanfield
6/10 over 2.5
12 scored
18 conceded
08/23
08/30
09/05
09/14
09/19
10/06
10/10
10/17
10/24
11/03
Atl. Tucuman
5/10 over 2.5
10 scored
13 conceded
08/22
08/30
09/07
09/12
09/21
10/03
10/09
10/18
10/24
11/03
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 0-0
- 0-1
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 1-2
- 0-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 11 | 14 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Banfield | Draw | Atl. Tucuman |
|---|---|---|---|
| Banfield | 29%3.51 | 6%18.15 | 1%67.11 |
| Level | 10%10.18 | 19%5.35 | 11%9.43 |
| Atl. Tucuman | 1%99.01 | 4%25.32 | 20%4.90 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Banfield wins1Atl. Tucuman wins- D Atl. Tucuman vs Banfield 1-1
- D Banfield vs Atl. Tucuman 1-1
- W Atl. Tucuman vs Banfield 0-3
- D Banfield vs Atl. Tucuman 0-0
- L Atl. Tucuman vs Banfield 1-0
- D Atl. Tucuman vs Banfield 0-0
- D Banfield vs Atl. Tucuman 1-1
- W Banfield vs Atl. Tucuman 2-0
8 meetings in the data. Results shown from Banfield's side.