Atlanta Utd
28%
Fair odds 3.58Bookmakers 27%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| New York Red Bulls | Draw | Atlanta Utd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 47% | 25% | 28% |
| Elo model | 49% | 27% | 24% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 50% | 23% | 27% |
| Best price on offer | 1.90 | 4.20 | 3.50 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours New York Red Bulls
New York Red Bulls are rated 24 points above Atlanta Utd (1299 to 1275), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours New York Red Bulls
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to New York Red Bulls's chance of winning and takes the same from Atlanta Utd's.
-
Attack against defence Favours New York Red Bulls
Expected goals 1.7 to 1.3. New York Red Bulls score 0.8 a match against an average side (21st in MLS); Atlanta Utd concede 2.2 (22nd best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Atlanta Utd
New York Red Bulls LLWLL, lost 12 rating points; Atlanta Utd WLLLW, gained 10 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Neutral
Bookmakers' average price agrees with the model to within a few points (New York Red Bulls 50%, Atlanta Utd 27%).
Not in the model -
Past meetings Neutral
New York Red Bulls won 4, drew 3 and lost 3 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
New York Red BullsAtlanta Utd
09/10
09/13
09/19
10/01
10/11
10/15
10/18
10/24
10/28
11/01
Atlanta Utd
8/10 over 2.5
16 scored
17 conceded
09/10
09/13
09/20
09/27
10/11
10/15
10/18
10/25
10/28
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 2-2
- 0-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | New York Red Bulls | Draw | Atlanta Utd |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York Red Bulls | 29%3.44 | 5%20.92 | 2%59.52 |
| Level | 16%6.39 | 14%7.21 | 10%10.41 |
| Atlanta Utd | 3%34.25 | 5%18.69 | 17%5.85 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Atlanta Utd wins- L Atlanta Utd vs New York Red Bulls 2-1
- W New York Red Bulls vs Atlanta Utd 2-0
- D Atlanta Utd vs New York Red Bulls 0-0
- L Atlanta Utd vs New York Red Bulls 2-1
- D New York Red Bulls vs Atlanta Utd 2-2
- W New York Red Bulls vs Atlanta Utd 4-0
- L Atlanta Utd vs New York Red Bulls 1-0
- W Atlanta Utd vs New York Red Bulls 1-2
- W New York Red Bulls vs Atlanta Utd 2-1
- D New York Red Bulls vs Atlanta Utd 0-0
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from New York Red Bulls's side.