York
Model pick
40%
Fair odds 2.50
Atlanta Utd
35%
Fair odds 2.86
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| York | Draw | Atlanta Utd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 40% | 25% | 35% |
| Elo model | 40% | 28% | 32% |
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Favours Atlanta Utd
Atlanta Utd are rated 39 points above York (1275 to 1236), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours York
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to York's chance of winning and takes the same from Atlanta Utd's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.6 to 1.5. York score 0.7 a match against an average side (9th in League Two); Atlanta Utd concede 2.2 (22nd best defence in MLS).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Atlanta Utd
York LLWDD, lost 15 rating points; Atlanta Utd WLLLW, gained 10 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
YorkAtlanta UtdYork
4/10 over 2.5
16 scored
14 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/26
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/27
10/31
Atlanta Utd
8/10 over 2.5
16 scored
17 conceded
09/10
09/13
09/20
09/27
10/11
10/15
10/18
10/25
10/28
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-2
- 1-0
- 2-2
- 0-1
- 2-0
- 0-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 7 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | York | Draw | Atlanta Utd |
|---|---|---|---|
| York | 11%8.87 | 1%81.30 | 0%— |
| Level | 20%4.98 | 11%9.03 | 5%19.84 |
| Atlanta Utd | 9%10.88 | 12%8.53 | 30%3.33 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.