Club Tijuana
Model pick
64%
Fair odds 1.56
Atlante
15%
Fair odds 6.51
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Club Tijuana | Draw | Atlante | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 64% | 20% | 15% |
| Elo model | 57% | 25% | 18% |
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Favours Club Tijuana
Club Tijuana are rated 76 points above Atlante (1404 to 1327), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Club Tijuana
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Club Tijuana's chance of winning and takes the same from Atlante's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Club Tijuana
Expected goals 2.2 to 1.0. Club Tijuana score 1.1 a match against an average side (5th in Liga MX); Atlante concede 2.1 (15th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Club Tijuana
Club Tijuana DDWDD, gained 13 rating points; Atlante LLWLL, lost 21 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
Club TijuanaAtlanteClub Tijuana
5/10 over 2.5
17 scored
14 conceded
08/29
09/12
09/21
09/26
10/11
10/17
10/22
10/29
11/01
Atlante
4/10 over 2.5
11 scored
17 conceded
08/29
09/06
09/12
09/19
09/26
10/11
10/17
10/21
10/24
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-0
- 2-1
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 3-0
- 3-1
- 2-2
- 0-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Club Tijuana | Draw | Atlante |
|---|---|---|---|
| Club Tijuana | 33%3.02 | 2%49.50 | 0%— |
| Level | 25%4.03 | 11%9.42 | 4%27.03 |
| Atlante | 7%14.64 | 7%14.51 | 12%8.59 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.