Juarez
27%
Fair odds 3.71
Atlas
Model pick
49%
Fair odds 2.04
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Juarez | Draw | Atlas | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 27% | 24% | 49% |
| Elo model | 33% | 28% | 39% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Atlas
Atlas are rated 84 points above Juarez (1363 to 1279), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Juarez
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Juarez's chance of winning and takes the same from Atlas's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Atlas
Expected goals 1.3 to 1.8. Juarez score 0.7 a match against an average side (19th in Liga MX); Atlas concede 1.9 (12th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Juarez WDLLD, barely moved; Atlas WWLWD, gained 13 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Atlas
Juarez won 2, drew 3 and lost 5 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
JuarezAtlasJuarez
5/10 over 2.5
9 scored
19 conceded
08/31
09/05
09/19
09/28
10/11
10/18
10/21
10/24
10/31
Atlas
5/10 over 2.5
18 scored
21 conceded
08/30
09/06
09/13
09/20
09/26
10/11
10/17
10/22
10/25
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 0-2
- 2-1
- 2-2
- 1-3
- 1-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 5 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Juarez | Draw | Atlas |
|---|---|---|---|
| Juarez | 20%4.89 | 8%11.82 | 7%15.17 |
| Level | 6%16.00 | 12%8.31 | 21%4.80 |
| Atlas | 1%— | 2%40.32 | 22%4.51 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Juarez wins5Atlas wins- W Juarez vs Atlas 3-1
- L Atlas vs Juarez 3-1
- D Atlas vs Juarez 1-1
- D Juarez vs Atlas 2-2
- L Atlas vs Juarez 2-1
- L Juarez vs Atlas 1-2
- D Juarez vs Atlas 1-1
- W Atlas vs Juarez 0-1
- L Juarez vs Atlas 1-2
- L Atlas vs Juarez 2-0
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from Juarez's side.