Mirassol
35%
Fair odds 2.83
Atletico-MG
Model pick
36%
Fair odds 2.77
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Mirassol | Draw | Atletico-MG | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 35% | 28% | 36% |
| Elo model | 43% | 28% | 30% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Atletico-MG
Atletico-MG are rated 20 points above Mirassol (1390 to 1370), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Mirassol
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Mirassol's chance of winning and takes the same from Atletico-MG's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.2 to 1.2. Mirassol score 0.8 a match against an average side (12th in Brasileirão); Atletico-MG concede 1.5 (5th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Mirassol LDWLD, lost 10 rating points; Atletico-MG LLWWD, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Atletico-MG
Mirassol won 0, drew 1 and lost 2 of the last 3 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
MirassolAtletico-MGMirassol
2/10 over 2.5
11 scored
11 conceded
08/30
09/02
09/06
09/13
09/19
10/07
10/11
10/17
10/24
10/30
Atletico-MG
5/10 over 2.5
14 scored
12 conceded
08/29
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/03
10/09
10/11
10/17
10/26
10/29
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 0-1
- 1-0
- 0-0
- 1-2
- 2-1
- 0-2
- 2-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 10 | 14 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Mirassol | Draw | Atletico-MG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mirassol | 27%3.75 | 7%15.27 | 2%43.10 |
| Level | 8%11.88 | 18%5.71 | 13%7.59 |
| Atletico-MG | 1%— | 3%29.24 | 21%4.73 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
0Mirassol wins2Atletico-MG wins- L Atletico-MG vs Mirassol 3-1
- L Atletico-MG vs Mirassol 1-0
- D Mirassol vs Atletico-MG 2-2
3 meetings in the data. Results shown from Mirassol's side.